Tiểu luận tiếng anh Kinh tế vĩ mô : Tình hình lạm phát tại Mỹ: Stagflation in the United States

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INTRODUCTION

An article from “The New York Times” published on Febuary 13^th, 2011 mentioned that:
“In the USA, CONGRESS has made a terrible mistake. Amid a rhetorical debate centered on words like “crisis,” “emergency” and “catastrophe,” it acted too fast. While arguments were made about the stimulus bill’s specific components — taxpayer money for condoms, new green cars and golf carts for federal bureaucrats, another round of rebate checks — its more dangerous consequences were overlooked. And now the package threatens a return to the kind of stagflation last seen in the 1970s.
From a global perspective, the picture only looks worse. As we have debated how much money to borrow and spend in hopes of jump-starting our economy, we’ve ignored the worldwide stimulus binge. China, Europe and Japan are all spending hundreds of billions of dollars they don’t have in hopes of speeding up their economies, too. That means the very countries we have relied on to buy our bonds, notably China and Japan, are now putting their own bonds on the global credit markets.
It seems that no one in Washington is discussing what happens when the world begins this gargantuan borrowing spree. How high will interest rates rise? And more fundamentally, who will have the money to buy our bonds? It is possible that the Federal Reserve will succumb to pressure to “monetize” our debt — that is, print new money to buy our bonds. In fact, the Fed is already suggesting that it will buy long-term Treasury securities in order to lower borrowing costs. If it does, then our money supply, which has already increased substantially over the past year, will grow even faster.
To American families, inflation is a destroyer of savings, a killer of wealth, a crusher of confidence. It calls into question the value of our money. And while we all share in the pain, the people whom inflation hits hardest are elderly people who live on fixed incomes, those in the middle class who are struggling to save for retirement and college and lower-income people who live paycheck to paycheck.
Combine high inflation and high unemployment and you have stagflation. Hindsight shows how the pain of the late 1970s and early 1980s could have been avoided, yet we’re now again planning to borrow and spend — and raise taxes — as President Jimmy Carter did. Soon we may again find ourselves watching a rising “misery index” of inflation and unemployment together. If that happens, individual earning power will evaporate, and our standard of living will decline .”
Obviously, we are entering an era of high inflation, to judge by the massive growth of the money supply in the United States, Europe and Asia, and the stubbornness of central bankers who insist that high unemployment demands the creation of even more money. The last time the world went through a similar period was the 1970s. The term that defined the era was "stagflation."
Thus because the 1970s stagflation did do great harm to the U.S. economy and global economy as a whole, followed by a period of recesssion and there are evidences that we are on our way to the replay of stagflation nowadays, a thorough understanding of stagflation is crucially important for individuals as well as policy-makers to make reasonable decisions.
The urgency of this trend has led us to choose “Stagflation in the U.S.” as the topic of our assignment. In this study, we will give a clear definiton of stagflation. Besides, a deep analyse is made on the factual situation of the 1970s Great Stagflation and more recently, especially the main causes that leads to stagflation in the period. Lastly, we will come up with some recommendations for individual decisions and implementation of government’s policies.
We hope that through the arguments and data in our paper, you could gain comprehensive understanding, including basic and in-depth knowledge, about the issue and be more confident, more active when making decisions in today economic situation.


CONTENTS

I. Definition

II. Facts
1. Facts of stagflation in the 1970s
2. Fears of stagflation return

III. Causes
1. General causes
2. Causes of stagflation in the 1970s
3. Explanation for risks of stagflation return

IV. Recommendations
1. Increasing aggregate supply
2. Long-term stock pick
3. Commodity investment
4. International system of buffer stocksTrích từ: http://www.kilobooks.com